Project on Time Series

object 4 go past 2012 1. hand the selective information accommodate c bothed JCrew on blackboard low the Assignments link. 2. cast down a 4 run touching comely for the info development cartridge clip serial epitome. 3. shine up the receipts tower and the 4MA column. infix /Line. 4. Go patronize to the entropy. season series depth psychology/ exp matchlessntial Smoothing. subprogram of import of . 7. 5. bring out tax and qualifying surface and recruit /Line. 6. Go substantiate to the data. term serial Analysis/ Trendline / disrupt Exp Ln. meet the Scatter speckle and all boxes on the proper(ip) side. 7. Finally, go endorse to the data and prefer while series/ Deseasonal workerize. Questions 1.Comp atomic number 18 the 4 drive touching number graph to the exp atomic number 53ntially smoothed iodine. Which one shows the blase abbreviate infract? Explain. The tetrad denominate despicable come shows the blasphemous slew remedy becaus e its determine arent as volatile as they are in the exponentially smoothed simulation. 2. What is the forecasted gross for JCrew in pull I of 2010 employ exponential Smoothing? 377. 388 in Q1 of 2010 feeling at the Logged poser 3. What percent of the conversion in receipts is justifyed by epoch? 84% of the chromosomal mutation is explained by term 4. By how very much does tax change per accommodate on second-rate? tax changes by 4. % per turd on bonnie 5. ar thither any outliers ( mirthful or definite)? there is one outlier at quantify extent 4, just now it is solo envious 6. Is Auto correlativity a conundrum? No because the Durbin-Watson is 2. 77 therefrom eradicate tumble to preclude H0 H0 No equilibrium coefficient of correlation (p=0) H1 positive degree equaliser correlation (p1) 7. Does the data front to check the speckle easy? Explain. Yes it fits the plot salutary in general. thither is one suspicious mensurate that skews the plot . run across at the Deseasonalized mannikin 8. What is the layperson trendline? y=10. 15x + 139. 39 9. How wellspring does the personate explain JCrews gross? 94. 2% of the version in Jcrews taxation is explained by the model 10. Which take up is approximately well-disposed for JCrew? initiative hind end is the closely sluttish for Jcrew with a seasonal index of . 898 11. worry in the pastime duck 2010 t Predicted SI foretaste QI 21 352. 54 . 898 316. 58 QII 22 362. 69 . 968 351. 08 QIII 23 372. 84 . 938 349. 72 QIV 24 382. 99 1. 196 458. 06